Below article is the work of u/loveanalytics, originally published on Sorare‘s channel on Reddit. To access his original Beautiful Data post, please follow this link : The Beautiful Data #2: CERV
Hello everyone!
This week, we’ll take a look at the topic of consistency versus explosivity.
If you missed my previous post, then you can check out the first edition that talks about player form.
CERV stands for Consistency, Explosivity, Reliability, and Volatility.
The beauty about being a manager on Sorare is that you have the choice to select the kind of players you want in your squad. Are you a risk-taker and want to push your luck, aiming for the highest price? Then explosive players would suit you. Are you more conservative, risk-averse, and happy with regularly ranking well? Then consistent and less explosive players would suit you better.
Let’s define a few terms that will be useful throughout the post:
- L15AVG: The Average score of the last 15 games excluding DNPs.
- SD: The standard deviation of the last 15 games. This shows the variance of scores of the player
- # DS: Number of decisive scores that the player got in the last 15 games.
Throughout this whole analysis, This is the player pool that we consider:
- Minimum 10 games played in L15
- MLS, JLeague, KLeague
- L15 AVG > 50
Note that we only consider MLS, JLeague, and KLeague competitions as we don’t have European competitions coming up soon. We can run this analysis again on European players later on when it makes sense.
Consistent Players
Consistent players are simply players that have similar scores throughout their L15. In data terms, they are the players that have a low standard deviation. Let’s check the top 10 players that fall in this bracket
For example, Dave Romney seems to be the definition of consistency, with scores that appear to be very similar.
Volatile Players
Volatile players are simply players that have both very low and very high scores throughout their L15. In data terms, they are the players that have a high standard deviation. Let’s check the top 10 players that fall in this bracket
For example, Ryuta Koike has both scores that vary a lot between GWs, with occasionally a very high score.
Reliable Players
We talked about consistent players, but there is an important factor that should be taken into consideration, which is the number of decisive scores.
The first decisive score gives 25 extra points, which is a considerable amount of points that are hard to predict.
So when I talk about reliable players here, I talk about players that have a low standard deviation, as well as the fact that they have a low number of decisive scores. This means that if he somehow manages to score a goal or assist, then great, those are extra points. Without them, they would still score consistently well.
For example, Alejandro Bedoya scores consistently well, and he is very reliable since he got all those scores without a single decisive score.
Explosive Players
Volatile players are players that rely on decisive scores mostly. Most of the time, they have high standard deviations as well. These are the high-risk high-reward type of players as they can spike some great scores.
For example, Leandro Damiao had 14 decisive scores in the L15, and offers scores on both ends of the spectrum.
Summary
There you have it, 4 types of players that we presented:
- Consistent: Low SD, Some DS.
- Volatile: High SD, some DS
- Reliable: Low SD, No DS
- Explosive: High SD, High DS
I hope you enjoyed this second post, any feedback is appreciated. Also, feel free to share what kind of data analysis you would like to see in the future!
Also, a big thanks to SorareData for providing the Score graphs for the players.
If you want to access some of this data, you can fetch game stats information for different players from our API. You check out https://github.com/sorare/api
You can request an API key in order to be able to do more requests by sending an email to contact@sorare.com.
As an extra, here is the data dump used for the analysis made here. You can sort by columns in order to see changes in the graph.
This ends this Beautiful Data article.
See you soon for the 3rd opus of this series. Until then, the next article will deal with the schedule of the 2021 / 2022 championships on Sorare.
See you soon,
