Investing a few hundred dollars in Limited cards or a few thousand euros in trading is not enough for you? You want to make a lot of money with Sorare and are ready to go all in with Sorare? So how much does it cost to make a very profitable investment? How much do you have to invest to make a lot of money? We put numbers on your ambitions! Discover how it is possible to earn 13 000 dollars on Sorare in 6 months !
In this article we will start from the assumption that we do not want to focus on the Limited, as we want to aim for the best rewards, which are mainly obtained through rare and superior cards.
However, the idea is to remain pragmatic and find a good compromise between investment and profitability. Thus, we will focus on rare cards. Adding super rare and/or unique cards is not a must to win in the first divisions (D4 & D3). If you want to go beyond that, then yes you will have to.
How do I do it ?
The easiest way: look for good players thanks to SorareData and stack them, compose D4 and D3 teams in all regions and the rewards will eventually fall! This approach may be a bit brutal, but it’s likely to work if you have the means and the ability to buy all these players and replace them in case of injury.
The problem with this method is that it’s not very optimized. And then in terms of tracking, it’s tedious because you have to track X players, Y teams and Z leagues. If you have the time to do it, do your own experiments, there is no absolute method.
I propose a method, which has many advantages from my point of view: build a team composed of players from a single club.
How to build a successful team on Sorare?
In a recent article, we asked ourselves about the possibility to win a lot by taking only the best players available. The test was limited to one region (Europe), but we saw that it was quite complicated to line up a mix of players, because of not being in the same teams and leagues.
Further reading : Can you win cards on Sorare with ONLY THE BEST players ?
We are going to start this exercise again but by erasing the defect of our previous model. We will take 5 players playing in the same team and build a mono team.
The advantages of making this choice are numerous:
- Guarantee that players play on the same Game Weeks;
- Increase of the chance that they have good (or bad) scores simultaneously: naturally, if your team scores 5 – 0 against its opponent, the probability that several of your players are involved in an assist and/or a goal is increased;
- Guarantee that they participate in the same competitions: no risk that one of your players is eliminated from a competition and that you end up with a missing player;
- Extreme simplification of your tracking: no more need to track Y teams and Z championships: only 1 team, 1 championship. Quite practical, isn’t it?
- Extreme simplification of your management: you take the substitutes at each position, which are not very expensive and you are almost sure to have a 5-man starting team every time.
Which club to invest in on Sorare ?
SorareData offers a very interesting feature, relatively unused I think: Team So5 Rankings.
This page is very interesting because it allows :
- To list all the clubs / leagues represented on Sorare;
- To know the average score for each position of a team (Own GK, Own Def, etc.) over the last 10 games played;
- To know the average score at each position of a team’s opponents (Opp GK, Opp Def, etc.) over the last 10 games played.
We will therefore look for a team with the highest scores AND the lowest possible scores of its opponents. By combining these two parameters, we try to find out which club dominates its league as much as possible (and is therefore likely to demolish its opponents).
As of this writing, here are the top 5 worldwide:
|Team||Opp GK||Opp Def||Opp Mid||Opp Fwd||Own GK||Own Def||Own Mid||Own Fwd||Own||Opp||Difference|
|FC Bayern München||34,3||38,9||45||44,6||58,3||57,3||68,2||68,6||63,1||40,7||22,4|
Ajax Amsterdam outshines all other clubs, with the highest average team score, and the second lowest average score for their opponents. We will therefore use Ajax Amsterdam as a club to build our mono-team.
Which players to buy on Sorare?
Ajax Amsterdam has the particularity of not really having average players, as you can see on the picture below :
With the exception of Dušan Tadić and Daley Blind, whose prices vary from the other players on their line, each line has relatively consistent prices. So compose your preferred major 5, you should pretty much arrive at relatively similar amounts.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will retain the best at each position (excluding Blind and Tadić, who are aging) in a 1-2-1-1 composition (personal choice retained on the statistical performance of the team – L5 / L15 / L40) :
- Goalkeeper: Remko Pasveer
- Defender : Noussair Mazraoui
- Midfielder : Edson Álvarez
- Forward : Steven Berghuis
- Extra : Lisandro Martínez
Price of the 5 major (without substitutes!): 3.395 ETH
Obviously, if we want to ensure that we don’t have game weeks with gaps, it is essential to have replacements. However, it depends on whether you want to take the risk or not, that’s up to you.
- Goalkeeper: Jay Gorter
- Defender: Jurriën Timber
- Milieu de terrain : Antony
- Midfielder : Sébastien Haller
- Extra : Ryan Gravenberch
Price of the 5 major (without substitutes!): 6.946 ETH
Fun fact: the 5 subs are worth more than the 5 starters at the time of writing, highlighting that there is not necessarily a correlation between So5 performance and a player’s value.
What profitability can you expect?
Raw data analysis
As of this writing, we are in Game Week #211 (October 19 to 22). Ajax has resumed its season in Game Week #192 (August 13 to 17), that is 20 game weeks. Among these 20 game weeks, only 13 involve Ajax, the other days corresponding to international breaks.
The table below lists the scores obtained from the 5 major identified above, taking into account the following parameters:
- Application of a coefficient of 1.05 for rare cards
- Application of a coefficient of 1.25 for Steven Berghuis, team captain in our simulation
|GW||Remko Pasveer||Noussair Mazraoui||Edson Álvarez||Steven Berghuis||Lisandro Martínez||Total||Rank||Reward||Value|
Several observations can be made when reading these figures:
- 2 players didn’t play during the first 3 game weekds, so our reference is more focused on the last 10 games rather than the last 13.
- We get 5 rewards out of 10 game weeks > 50%, it’s huge!
- We get 1,23 ETH of rewards, that is to say approximately 1/3 of our investment > At this rate, we will be “reimbursed” next spring (considering that this team will continue to play together)
The limitations of this model
This model only works under regular conditions (Ajax’s continued performance, same starters, etc.). Soccer is much less stable than that, and injuries and performance drops are part of the game. So I would recommend not to go for it if you don’t have some money to spare for possible injuries along the way.
As far as performance is concerned, Ajax has the particularity of maintaining very high levels of performance over time, which is reassuring in this respect.
Also keep in mind if you go the Ajax route, that you will have to invest in the short/medium term in the future goalkeeper who will replace the current Ajax goalkeepers, both of whom are at the end of their careers.
To finish this article, I would like to highlight a bias of this study that impacted our initial performance: this model was built by assuming the best players in terms of L5 / L15 and L40 scores. If it is true that Noussair Mazraoui‘s L5 / L15 and L40 scores were more interesting than Jurriën Timber‘s, the latter showed even more sparkling performances than his teammate during the last 10 games. If we replace one of them by the other, here are the performances we would have obtained.
|GW||Remko Pasveer||Jurriën Timber||Edson Álvarez||Steven Berghuis||Lisandro Martínez||Total||Rank||Card||Value|
|204||66,15||81,165||84,84||105,625||101,22||439||1||Diogo Costa + 0.65 ETH||0,985|
Looking at pure performance over the last 10 games, and making this adjustment in defense, we now get 2,994 ETH in rewards over the same period, or more than 2/3 of our initial investment in the space of a big month.
Considering a gain of 1 ETH as a pessimistic model and a gain of 2,14 ETH (not taking into account the 1st place bonus) as an optimistic model, as well as Ajax’s calendar, it was possible get your money back by March 13, 2022 for the 1st model (pessimistic), and by December 12, 2021 within the framework of the optimistic model by starting on September 15, 2021. Rather interesting when you think that everything that comes after is a net gain?
I would also like to remind you that past performance does not predict future performance, and that what is behind us is not certain to happen again. This is the very nature of investing. Don’t think of it as an absolute guarantee, sports performance doesn’t work that way. But statistically speaking, this model offers many advantages in addition to offering a very high theoretical return on investment.
And you, what do you think? Are you convinced by this model? Don’t hesitate to come and see me on Discord (Shadwolf#2838) if you want to discuss about this model and its efficiency.
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See you soon,